I am a professor of economics at Caltech. My research is in microeconomic theory, mainly on choice under risk and un­cer­tain­ty, theories of atten­tion and information acquisition, fore­ca­sting, and Bayesian epistemology.

I graduated from Northwestern University, where I was ad­vised by Alvaro Sandroni, and before Caltech, I spent a year as a post­doctoral fellow at the Cowles Foundation, Yale.

I am serving as an associate editor at the Journal of Political Economy, the Journal of Economic Theory, and the Journal of Mathematical Economics.

My curriculum vitae.

You can reach me at luciano@caltech.edu.

Working Papers

1. On the events satisfying the sure-thing principle
   with Tommaso Denti

   Given a preference relation over Anscombe-Aumann acts, we study the collection of events for which the preference satisfies Savage’s P2 axiom. We show that this collection is a sigma-algebra whenever the preference is monotone, suitably continuous, and satisfies the independence axiom over constant acts. We provide a relatively self-contained proof, which by and large builds on Gul and Pesendorfer (2014) and Grant, Liu, and Yang (2024).

2. Understanding rational inattention through f-informativity and duality
   with Alexander Bloedel and Tommaso Denti

   In preparation.

Publications

3. Monotone additive statistics
   with Xiaosheng Mu, Philipp Strack, and Omer Tamuz
   Econometrica, 2024.
4. Background risk and small-stakes risk aversion
   with Xiaosheng Mu, Philipp Strack and Omer Tamuz
   American Economic Review: Insights, 2024.
5. The cost of information: The case of constant marginal costs
   with Philipp Strack, and Omer Tamuz
   American Economic Review, 2023.
6. Stable matching under forward-induction reasoning
   Theoretical Economics, 2022.
7. Model and predictive uncertainty: A foundation for smooth ambiguity preferences
   with Tommaso Denti
   Econometrica, 2022.
8. Twofold multiprior preferences and failures of contingent reasoning
   with Federico Echenique, Masaki Miyashita, Yuta Nakamura, and Jamie Vinson
   Journal of Economic Theory, 2022.
9. From Blackwell dominance in large samples to Rényi divergences and back again
   with Xiaosheng Mu, Philipp Strack, and Omer Tamuz
   Econometrica, 2021.
10. Testable forecasts
    Theoretical Economics, 2021.
11. Aggregate risk and the Pareto principle
    with Nabil Al-Najjar
    Journal of Economic Theory, 2020.
12. Stochastic dominance under independent noise
    with Philipp Strack and Omer Tamuz
    Journal of Political Economy, 2020.
13. An abstract law of large numbers
    with Nabil Al-Najjar
    Sankhya, Series A, 2020.
14. An axiomatic theory of inductive inference
    with Alvaro Sandroni
    Philosophy of Science, 2018.
15. Choice under aggregate risk
    with Nabil Al-Najjar
    Theory and Decision, 2016.
16. Claim validation
    with Nabil Al-Najjar and Alvaro Sandroni
    American Economic Review, 2014.
17. Merging and testing opinions
    with Nabil Al-Najjar and Alvaro Sandroni
    Annals of Statistics, 2014.

Teaching

• PS/EC 172: Game theory
• SS 205b: Foundations of economics
• SS 201a: Game theory
• SS/PSY/CNS 285: Topics in social, cognitive, and decision sciences
• Two lectures on strategic forecasting