here's a peculiar new guidepost for those braving the treacherous world of emerging markets, and it's shaped like a swoosh. The "Nike indicator," dreamed up by Hong Kong investment research firm Jardine Fleming Securities earlier this year, purports to gauge Asian countries' level of industrial and economic development--and thus whether its market is truly emerging--by scrutinizing the shoemaker's production patterns. Jardine Fleming figures that the things Nike looks for--like very low wages, stable currency, a very strong government, and bountiful raw materials--translate into pretty good benchmarks for investors.

Are they serious? You bet. Their theory goes that as other multinational firms join Nike's lead, labor costs rise, workers become more skilled, and currencies grow stronger. The market then booms and opens its doors to eager investors wanting shares. In the late 1960s and mid-1970s, Nike was in Japan; from 1974 to 1985, Nike shifted production to South Korea and Taiwan; then in the late 1980s, it moved into Thailand, China, and Indonesia. Indonesia and China remain the lead producers accounting for two-thirds of Nike's sneakers, but Vietnam surged past Thailand last year. "Vietnam should now be on investors' radar screens," concludes Colin Bradbury, Jardine Fleming's Asian regional strategist. India, he adds, may be next.

So what does Nike--a company whose international labor practices have been watched with less admiring eyes in the past--think of being a market indicator? "If you buy the idea that industrialization is good for a country's economy, yeah, it's a decent indicator," says Rick Anguilla, Nike's director of industrial relations. "We're the canary in a coal mine."