Thomas H. Heaton


 

Professor of Geophysics and Professor of Civil Engineering

Ph.D., 1978, Geophysics, California Institute of Technology
B.S., 1972, Physics, Indiana University

 mailto:heaton_t@caltech.edu


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Strong Ground Motion Research

Although smaller earthquakes are far more numerous, large earthquakes (M > 7.5) account for most of the slip in plate tectonics. That is, the number of earthquakes generally decreases by a factor of ten for each unit increase in magnitude, but the energy of an individual earthquake increases by a factor of 32. If we assume that M 8.0 is the largest earthquake magnitude that an earthquake can have in California, then there is three times as much radiated energy in the M 7 to 8 earthquakes as there is in all other earthquakes smaller than M 7. Therefore, we see that although large earthquakes are infrequent, they are the major actors in plate tectonics; in this sense, large earthquakes are inevitable.

     What will happen when one of these large magnitude earthquakes hits one of our cities? Recent engineering studies have concluded that since many structures weathered the onslaught of the 1994 M 6.7 Northridge earthquake and the 1995 M 6.9 Kobe earthquake, that our building standards are adequate to handle the coming earthquakes. However, can we expect to survive a M 7.9 earthquake with 32 times as much energy?

     There seems to be an inconsistency between earth scientists and earthquake engineers about the significance of large magnitude earthquakes. Much of our work is aimed at a more complete understanding of the nature of ground shaking close to large earthquakes. That is, ground motions from large earthquakes are simulated by propagating waves through 3-dimensional earth structure models. The models produce realistic estimates of the large displacements (several meters in several seconds) that occur in great earthquakes. While accelerations that are associated with these large displacements may not be large enough to cause failure of strong, shear-wall structures, they may cause severe deformations in flexible buildings that rely heavily on ductility for their performance in large earthquakes. This work is closely coordinated with Prof. John F. Hall.

We (Jing Yang) are investigating the potential performance of steel moment-resisting-frame buildings in large subduction zone earthquakes.  We have simulated the deformations and damage that would have occurred to such buildings in the M 8.3 Tokachi-Oki earthquake (2003).  Although there we no such buildings present on the island of Hokkaido during this earthquake, there were 275 strong motion records which we are using as the basis of our study.  In addition, we are using this data as the basis of an empirical Green’s function study of the potential effects of a giant (M>9) subduction earthquake on high-rise buildings in the cities of Seattle, Portland, and Vanvouver.

We (Anna Olsen) are also studying the performance of steel moment-resisting-frame buildings and base-isolated buildings in simulations of large crustal earthquakes in California.  These include simulations of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake (collaboration with Brad Aagaard) and simulations of several plausible earthquakes in the Los Angeles Basin.

     Earthquake Rupture Physics and Crustal Stress

Much of the deformation of the Earth's crust occurs as earthquake rupture. Therefore, it is of critical importance to understand the fundamental dynamics of earthquake rupture to understand the stress state of the crust. We are particularly interested in understanding the origins of spatially heterogeneous slip in earthquakes.  There is compelling evidence that slip in earthquakes and stress in the Earth’s crust are spatially heterogeneous, and perhaps fractal. We have been pursuing two different approaches to understand the dynamic properties of this system.

The first approach is a long-standing collaboration with Dr. Brad Aagaard (USGS, Menlo Park) and it consists of constructing 3-dimensionional finite-element models of the Earth's crust, which are controlled by dynamic friction on fault planes. The models include the effects of gravity so that crustal stresses are consistent with the topography of the Earth's surface and density variations in the crust. The models allow us to follow the partitioning of elastic and gravitational potential energy into radiated seismic waves, fracture energy, and frictional heating on faults. Using estimates or bounds on wave energy, facture energy, and heat energy, it is possible to put bounds on crustal deviatoric stress.

     Despite steady progress in simulating dynamic earthquake ruptures, there are limitations of this approach to understanding the dynamic properties of the crust.  In particular, recent experiments in dynamic friction suggest that there are rapid transitions between high static friction (>200 MPa at 10 km depth) and very low dynamic friction (<5 MPa).  These strong transitions in friction point to very localized slip pulses that propagate unsteadily along faults. Unfortunately, simulation of dynamic rupture with these friction laws requires enormous spatial grids with very fine time resolution. We (Jing Liu-Zeng) have constructed fractal models of slip that are compatible with observations of slip vs. rupture length scaling and also with earthquake frequency vs. magnitude statistics.

In addition we (Deborah Smith) have constructed a 3-dimensional fractal model of tensor stress that we use to simulate catalogs of earthquake locations and focal mechanisms.  This model predicts that traditional inversions of focal mechanism catalogs for average stress orientation may provide results that are seriously biased towards the orientation of the stress rate function.  It also predicts that the strength of the crust depends on the length scale over which failure occurs.  We (Ahmed Elbanna) are currently investigating the statistical relationship between fractal stress and fractal slip.

Earthquake Warning Systems

We (Georgia Cua and Masumi Yamada) are helping to develop new tools to mitigate earthquake disasters by providing comprehensive information as quickly as possible during and immediately after significant earthquakes.    We are developing computer algorithms that will analyze earthquake waves while the earthquake is still rupturing. This will allow a short-term warning (seconds to tens of seconds) to be broadcast to regions that are about to be shaken by seismic waves that are propagating towards them. Such warning may allow short-term mitigation actions to lessen the impact of shaking.  We have named our system the Virtual Seismologist (VS method) since it is based on the type of robust analysis that a human would perform if they had the time.  We use envelopes of acceleration, velocity, and displacement as the basic data input to a Bayesian framework that also incorporates other types of information (e.g., topology of the seismic network, recent seismic activity).  We are currently testing this algorithm on data recorded by the California Integrated Seismic Network.  We are also working on methodologies that will provide real-time estimates of rupture geometry and fault slip.  Knowledge of the present value of slip can be used to probabilistically predict the eventual size of an earthquake even before it is finished rupturing.

Studies of Building Vibrations

We are investigating the vibrations of buildings that are excited by a wide number of sources, including wind, machinery, and earthquakes of all sizes.  We have installed an advanced seismic station that continuously records the 9-story Millikan Library on the CIT campus, a building which has been the source of many interesting mysteries. For example, when the building's fundamental modes (north-south, east-west, and torsion) are excited by a 1-hp eccentric shaker operated on the building's roof, harmonic seismic waves are observed at the building's eigen-frequencies throughout the Pasadena area; they can even be detected on seismometers just north of the US-Mexican border, which is about 250 km away (see Javier Favela’s dissertation).

 

Another interesting mystery of Millikan Library is the fact that the natural frequencies of the fundamental modes (north-south, east-west, and torsion) all increase by several percent just following significant rain storms.  These increases in frequency slowly decrease over a period of several days.  We have been using advanced time-frequency representations (the Wigner-Ville distribution) to investigate how these natural frequencies change during shaking to both damaged and undamaged buildings (see Casey Bradford’s dissertation).

  

Students

 

Brad Aagaard, Ph.D. CE (co-advised with John Hall); Finite-element simulations of earthquakes

Javier Favela, 2004, Energy radiation from a multi-story building

John Clinton, 2004, Modern digital seismology - instrumentation, and small amplitude studues in the engineering world

Georgia Cua, 2004, Creating the Virtual Seismologist: developments in ground motion characterization and seismic early warning

Deborah Smith, Geophysics PhD 2006 A new paradigm for interpreting stress inversions from focal mechanisms; how 3D stress heterogeneity biases the inversions toward the stress rate

Casey Bradford, Ph.D. CE PhD 2006 Time-frequency analysis of systems with changing dynamic properties

Jing Yang, CE (4thyear; research topic; ground motions and simulated high-rise response in great and giant subduction earthquakes)

Masumi Yamada, CE (3rd year; research topic; Extending the Virtual Seismologist method for early warning to very large magnitude earthquakes)

Anna Olsen, CE (3rd year; research topic; Characterizing the non-linear response of high-rise buildings to anticipated ground motions in the metropolitan Los Angeles region)

Ahmed Elbanna, CE (2nd year; research topic; Statistical physics of rupture mechanics)

 

Courses Taught

ME 35c Statics and Dynamics. 9 units (3-0-6); Prerequisites: Ma 1 abc, Ph 1 abc, Introduction to analysis of stress and strain in engineering.

ME 65. Mechanics of Materials. 9 units (3-0-6); Prerequisites: AM 35 abc, Ma 2 ab. Introduction to continuum mechanics, principles of elasticity, plane stress, plane strain, axisymmetric problems, stress concentrations, thin films, fracture mechanics, variational principles, frame structures.

ME 66. Vibration. 9 units (3-0-6);  Prerequisites: AM 35 abc, Ma 2 ab. Introduction to vibration and wave propagation in continuous and discrete multi-degree-of-freedom systems. Strings, mass-spring systems, mechanical devices, elastic continua. Equations of motion, Lagrange's equations, Hamilton's principle, and time-integration schemes.

CE/Ge 181. Engineering Seismology. 9 units (3-0-6);  Characteristics of potentially destructive earthquakes from the engineering point of view. Determination of location and size of earthquakes; magnitude, intensity, frequency of occurrence; engineering implications of geological phenomena, including earthquake mechanisms, faulting, fault slippage, and effects of local geology on earthquake ground motion. (CE/GE 181 page)

Publications

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Alewine, R.W., and Heaton, T.H. 1973, Tilts associated with the Pt. Mugu earthquake, in Kovach, R.L., and Nur, A., eds..., Conference on tectonic problems of the San Andreas fault system, Stanford, California, 193, Proceedings:  Stanford Univ. Pubs. Geol. Sci., v. 13,p. 94-103.

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Heaton, T.H., 1975, Tidal triggering of earthquakes:  Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, v. 43, p. 307-326.

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Heaton, T.H., and Helmberger, D.V., 1977, Predictability of strong ground motion in the Imperial Valley:  Modeling the M 4.9, November 04, 1976 Brawley earthquake:  Seismological Society of America Bulletin, v. 68, no. 1, p. 31-48.

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Heaton, T.H., and Helmberger, D.V., 1978, Synthesis of San Fernando strong-motion records:  National Science Foundation Seminar Workshop on Strong Ground Motion, San Diego, 1978, Proceedings, p. 52-55.

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Heaton, T.H., 1978, Generalized ray models of strong ground motion:  Ph.D. Thesis, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, Calif., 300 p.

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Heaton, T.H., and Helmberger, D.V., 1979, Generalized ray models of the San Fernando earthquake, Bulletin Seismological Society of America, v. 69, no. 5, p. 1311-1341.

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McNutt, M., and Heaton, T.H., 1981, An evaluation of the seismic window theory:  California Division of Mines and Geology, California Geology, January 1981, p. 12-16.

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Anderson, J.G., and Heaton, T.H., 1980, Aftershock accelerograms recorded on a temporary array in Johnson, C.E., Sharp, R., and Rohan, C., eds..., The Imperial Valley Earthquake:  U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper No. 1254, pp 443-451.

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Heaton, T.H., 1982, The 1971 San Fernando earthquake; a double event:  Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 72, no. 6, p. 2037-2062.

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Heaton, T.H., 1982, Tidal triggering of earthquakes, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 72, no. 6, p. 2181-2200.

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Heaton, T.H., Anderson, J.G., and German, P.T., 1983, Ground failure along the New River caused by the 15 October 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake sequence, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 73, no. 4, 1161-1171.

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Hartzell, S.H., and Heaton, T.H., 1983, Inversion of strong ground motion and teleseismic waveform data for the fault rupture history of the 1979 Imperial Valley, California, earthquake, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 73, no. 6, 1153-1184.

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Heaton, T.H., Tajima. F., and Mori, A.W., 1986, Estimating ground motions using recorded accelerograms, Surveys in Geophysics, V. 8, pp 25-83.

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Hartzell, S.H, and Heaton, T.H., 1983, Teleseismic mechanism of the May 02, 1983 Coalinga, California, earthquake from long-period P-waves, in Bennett, J.H., and Sherburne, R.W., eds..., The 1983 Coalinga, California Earthquakes, Calif.. Div. Mines and Geology Special Publications 66, 241-246.

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Moslem, K, Amini, A. Kontic, B., Anderson, J.G., and Heaton, T.H., 1983, Accelerograms from the Mammoth Lakes, California earthquake sequence of May-July, 1980 recorded on a temporary array, University of Southern California Department of Civil Engineering Report no. CD83, 64 p.

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Heaton, T.H., and Kanamori, H., 1984, Seismic potential associated with subduction in the northwestern United States, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 74, no. 3, pp. 933-941.

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Liu, H.L., and Heaton, T.H., 1984, Array analysis of the ground velocities and accelerations from the 1971 San Fernando California, earthquake, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 74, no. 5, pp. 1951-1968.

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Heaton, T.H., 1985, A model for a seismic computerized alert network, Science, v.228, pp. 987-990

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Heaton, T.H., and Kanamori, H., 1985, Reply to Hemendra Acharya on his comments on "Seismic potential associated with subduction in the northwestern United States", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America., v.75, pp.891-892.

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Hartzell, S.H., and Heaton, T.H., 1985, Teleseismic time functions for large shallow Subduction zone earthquakes, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America , v. 75, pp. 965-1004.

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Heaton, T.H., and P,D. Snavely, Jr., 1985, Possible tsunami along the coast of Washington inferred from Indian traditions, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 75, pp. 1455-1460.

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Hartzell, S.H., and Heaton, T.H., 1985, Rupture history of the 1984 Morgan Hill, California, earthquake from the inversion of strong motion records, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v.76, pp. 649-674.

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Heaton, T.H., and Hartzell, S.H., 1986, Source characteristics of hypothetical subductions earthquakes in the northwest United States, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, V, 76, pp. 675-708.

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Heaton, T.H., and Hartzell, S.H., 1986, Estimation of strong ground motions from hypothetical earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone, Pacific Northwest, U.S. Geol. Surv. , Open-File Report 86-328, 70 p.

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Heaton, T.H., and Hartzell, S.H., 1987, Estimation of strong ground motions from hypothetical earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone, Pacific Northwest, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 129, 131-201.

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Heaton, T.H., and Hartzell, S.H., 1987, Seismic hazards on the Cascadia subduction zone, Science, v. 236. pp 162-168

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Heaton, T.H., 1987, Anomalous seismicity in the San Diego coastal region.  Proceedings of workshop XXXVII, Physical and Observational  Basis for Intermediate-Term Earthquake Prediction, Eds. K. Aki and W. Stuart, U.S. Geological Surv. Open-File Report  87-591, 667-681.

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Hartzell, S.H., and Heaton, T.H., 1988, Failure of self-similarity of large shallow subduction earthquakes,  Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 78, 478-488

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Heaton, T.H., and Hartzell, S.H., 1988, Earthquake Ground Motions, Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., v.16, pp 121-145.

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Heaton, T.H., and Heaton , R.E., 1989, Static deformations from point forces and force couples located in welded elastic Poissonian half-spaces:  implications for seismic moment tensors, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 79. 8133-841

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Heaton, T.H., Anderson, D., Arabasz, W., Buland R., Ellsworth, W., Hartzell, S., Lay, T., Spudich, P., 1989, National Seismic System Science Plan, U.S. Geol. Surv. Circular. 1031, 42p.

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Hartzell, S.H., and Heaton, T.H., 1989, The fortnightly tide and tidal triggering of earthquakes, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 79, 1282-1286

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Heaton, T.H., and Jones, L.M., 1989, Seismological research issues in the San Diego region, Proceedings of SCEPP Workshop on "The seismic risk in the San Diego region:  special focus on the Rosa Canyon fault system", Editor, G. Roquemore, 42-49.

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Kanamori, H., Mori, J., and Heaton, T.H., 1990, The December 03, 1988, Pasadena earthquake (ML = 4.9) recorded with the very-broad-band system in Pasadena, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., vol 80, 483-487.

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Wald, L.A., and Heaton, T.H., 1991, Lg and Rg waves on the California regional networks from the December 23, 1985 Nahanni earthquake, J. Geophs. Res., vol. 96, 12009-12125.

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Heaton, T.H., 1990 Evidence for and implications of self-healing pulses of slip in earthquake rupture, Phys. Earth Planet Int., Vol 64. 1-20.

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Kanamori, H., Mori, J., Anderson, D., and Heaton, T., 1991, Seismic excitation by space shuttle Columbia, Nature, v. 349, 781-782.

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Heaton, T. H., 1990, The calm before the quake, Nature, vol. 343, 511-512.

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Wald, D.J., Helmberger, D.V., and Heaton, T. H., 1991, Rupture model of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake from the inversion of strong motion and broad band teleseismic data, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., vol. 81, 1540-1572.

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Hauksson, E., Jones, L., Mori, J., Clayton, R., Heaton, T., Kanamori, H., and Helmberger, D., 1991, Southern California seismographic network: Report to the U.S. Geological Survey August 21, 1990, U.S. Geol. Surv. Open-File Rept.., 91-38, 51p.

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Hartzell, S., and Heaton, T. H., 1990, Earthquake ground motion at close distances, EPRI/ Stanford/USGS workshop on modeling ground motion at close distances, held in Palo Alto, CA, Sept. 1990, 23p.

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Heaton, T. H., 1991, Seismology in the U.S., 1986-1990, 1991, Reviews of Geophysics, Supplement, U.S. National Report to the IUGG, 659-661.

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Sacks, I., Heaton, T. H., Andrews, R., Savit, C. Toksöz, Tucker, B., Iwan, W., 1991, Real-time earthquake monitoring, Panel on real-time earthquake warning, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Wash., D.C., 52 p.

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Kanamori, H., E. Hauksson, and T. Heaton 1991, TERRAscope and CUBE project at Caltech, EOS v. 72, No. 50, p. 564.

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Kanamori, H., J. Mori, B. Sturtevant, D. Anderson, T. Heaton, 1992, Seismic excitation by space shuttles, Shockwaves - an International Journal, V. 2, 89-96.

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Aki, K., T. Henyey, and T. Heaton, 1991, What is the Southern California Earthquake Center?, EOS v. 72, no. 39, p 417 and 421.

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Heaton, T., 1992, Seismic threat to the Pacific Northwest, EQE Review, fall issue, 13-18.

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Heaton, T., 1992, Are earthquakes predictable?, Proceedings of the Frontiers of Science Symposium, held at the Beckman Center, Irvine, and convened by the National Academy of Sciences, Nov. 1991, 16p.

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Heaton, T., 1992, Overview of seismological methods for the synthesis of strong ground motion, Proceedings of the EPRI/Stanford/USGS workshop on modeling ground motion at close distances, held at Palo Alto, CA, Sept. 1990, in press, 24p.

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Prescott, W.H., J. Dieterich, T. Heaton, T. Holzer, A. Lindh, C. Prentice, P. Spudich, 1992, Report of the Western Region Earthquake Reorganization Task Group, U.S. Geol. Surv. Open-File Rept. xx, about 100 pages.

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Agnew, D., K. Aki, A. Cornell, J. Davis, P. Flores, T. Heaton, I. Idriss, D. Jackson, K. McNally, M. Reichle, J. Savage, K. Sieh, 1992, Future Seismic Hazards in Southern California, Phase I: Implications of the 1992 Landers Earthquake Sequence, Southern California Earthquake Center Report, 42p.

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Landers Earthquake Response Team (20 authors), 1993, Near-field investigations of the Landers earthquake sequence, April-July, 1992, Science, V. 260, 171-176.

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Kanamori, H., J. Mori, E. Hauksson, T. Heaton, K. Hutton, and L. Jones, 1993, Determination of earthquake energy release and ML using TERRAscope, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., V. 83, 330-346.

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Kanamori, H., H. Thio, D. Dreger, E. Hauksson, and T. Heaton , 1992, Initial investigation of the Landers, California, earthquake of 28 June 1992 using TERRAscope, Geophys. Res. Let., V. 19, 2267-2270.

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Wald, D., H. Kanamori, D. Helmberger, and T. Heaton, 1993, Source study of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., V 83, 981-1019.

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Wald, D., T. Heaton, and D. Helmberger, 1994, Strong motion and broad-band teleseismic analysis of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake for rupture process and hazards assessment, USGS Prof. Paper, in press, 24 pages. 

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Wald, D., and T. Heaton, 1994, Spatial and temporal distribution of slip for the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., V 84, 668-691.

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Scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey and the Southern California Earthquake Center, 1994, The magnitude 6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake of 17 January 1994, Science, V 266, 389-387.

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Heaton, T., J. Hall, D. Wald, and M. Halling, 1995, Response of high-rise and base-isolated buildings to a hypothetical M 7.0 blind thrust earthquake, Science, V 267, 206-211.

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Wald, D., and T. Heaton, 1994, A dislocation model of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake determined from strong ground motions, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 94-278, 53 pages.

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Wald, D., T. Heaton, and K. Hudnut, 1996, The slip history of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake determined from strong-motions, GPS, and leveling-line data, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 1b, s49-s70.

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Hauksson, E., and T. Heaton, 1995, The Southern California Seismographic Network, Tsunami Warning System Workshop Report, Sept. 14-15, 1994, NOAA, M. Blackford and H. Kanamori, editors, 37-60. 

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Heaton, T., 1994, Lessons learned from the Northridge Earthquake, Testimony to the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology of the U.S. House of Representatives, March 2, 1994, 7 pages.

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Heaton, T., 1995,  Looking back from the year 3,000, Seism. Res. Let., 66, No. 2, 3-4.

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Hall, J., T. Heaton, M. Halling, and D. Wald, 1995, Near-source ground motions and its effects on flexible buildings, Earthquake Spectra, 11, 569-605.

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Heaton, T., 1995, Urban Earthquakes, Seismological Society of America Presidential Address, Seism. Res. Let., 66, No. 5, 37-40.

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Hall, J., T. Heaton, D. Wald, 1997, Near-source ground motion studies for Northridge and Kobe earthquakes, Final Report, CUREe-Kajima Research Project, phase 2, 1996.9, 105 p.

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Wald, D., K. Hudnut, and T. Heaton, 1997, Estimation of uniformly spaced near-source broadband ground motions for the 1994 Northridge earthquake from forward and inverse modeling, Proceedings of the CURIEe Northridge Earthquake Research Conference, Los Angeles, August 1997, in press.

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Kanamori, H., E. Hauksson, and T. Heaton, 1997, Real-time Seismology and real-time earthquake hazard mitigation, Nature, 390, 461-464.

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Eguchi, R., J. Goltz, H. Seligson, P. Flores, N. Blais, T. Heaton, E. Bortugno, 1997, Real-time loss estimation as an emergency response decision support system: the Early Post-Earthquake Damage Assessment Tool (EPEDAT), Earthquake Spectra, 13, 815-832.

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Heaton, T., R. Clayton, J. Davis, E. Hauksson, L. Jones, H. Kanamori, J. Mori, R. Porcella, and T. Shakal, 1996, The TriNet Project, Proceedings of the 11th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, June 23-28, 1996, Acapulco Mexico, published by Pergamon.

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Kanamori, H., D. Anderson, and T. Heaton, 1998, Frictional melting during the rupture of the 1994 Bolivian earthquake, Science, 279, 839-842.

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Wald, D., and T. Heaton, 1998, Forward and inverse modeling of near-source ground motions for use in engineering response analysis, Structural Engineering Worldwide, Ed. N. Srivastava.

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Heaton, T., 1999, Interview with SCEC Scientist, Thomas Heaton, Southern California Earthquake Center Quarterly Newsletter, V. 4, No. 4, 4-10.

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Anooshehpoor, A., T. Heaton, B. Shi, and J. Brune, 1999, Estimates of the ground acceleration at Point Reyes Station during the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 89, 845-853.

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Wald, D., V. Quitoriano, T. Heaton, and H. Kanamori, 1999, Relationships between peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and Modified Mercalli Intensity in California, Earthquake Spectra, 15, 557-564.

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Wald, D., V. Quitoriano, T. Heaton, H. Kanamori, C. Scrivner, and B. Worden, 1999, TriNet “ShakeMaps”: rapid generation of peak ground motion and intensity maps for earthquakes in southern California, Earthquake Spectra, 15, 537-555.

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Kanamori, H., and T. Heaton, 2000, Microscopic and macroscopic physics of earthquakes, contained in Geocomplexity and the Physics of Earthquakes, Editors J. Rundle, D. Turcotte, and W. Klein, Geophysical Monograph 20, Published by the American Geophysical Union, D.C., 127-141.

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Aagaard, B., J. Hall, and T. Heaton, 2000, Sensitivity study of near-source ground motion, Proceedings of the Twelfth World Conference in Earthquake Engineering, Aukland, New Zealand.

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Aagaard, B., J. Hall, and T. Heaton, 2000, Simulation of near-source ground motions with dynamic failure, Proceedings of the ASCE Structures Congress, Philadelphia, Pa.

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Aagaard, B., J. Hall, and T. Heaton, 2001, “Characterization of Near-source Ground Motions with Earthquake Simulations,”  Earthquake Spectra, 17, 177-207.

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Aagaard, B., T. Heaton, and J. Hall, 2001, “Dynamic earthquake ruptures in the presence of lithostatic normal stresses, implications for friction models and heat production,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 91, 1765-1796.

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Clinton, J, and T. Heaton, 2002, “Potential advantages of a strong-motion velocity meter as opposed to a strong motion accelerometer,” Seismological Research Letters, 73, 332-342.

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Aagaard, B., and T. Heaton, 2004, “Effect of fault dip and slip rate on near-source ground motions: why rupture directivity was minimal in the 199 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake”, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 94, 1765-1796.

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Aagaard, B., and T. Heaton, 2004, “Near-source ground motions from simulations of sustained intersonic and supersonic fault ruptures”, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 94, 2064-2078.

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Bradford, S.C., J. Clinton, J Favela, and T. Heaton, 2004, Results of Millikan Library Forced Vibration Testing, Earthquake Eng. Res. Laboratory Report No. 2004-03, 39 p.

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Smith, D., and B. Aagaard, and T. Heaton, 2005, “Teleseismic body waves from dynamically rupturing shallow thrust faults: are they opaque for surface reflected phases?”, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 95, 800-817.

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Clinton, J., S.C. Bradford, T. Heaton, and J. Favela, 2006, “The observed wander of the natural frequencies in a structure,” Bull. Seism. Soc. Am, 96, 237-257.

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Liu-Zeng, J., T. Heaton, and C. DiCaprio, 2005, “The effect of slip variability on earthquake slip-length scaling,” Geophys. J. Intl., 162, 841-845.

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Cua, G., and Heaton, T, 2007, The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method: a Bayesian approach to earthquake early warning, in Seismic early warning, editors: P. Gasparini, G. Manfredi, J. Zschau, Springer Heidelberg, in press.

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Kohler, M. D., T. Heaton, and C. Bradford, 2007, Wave propagation in buildings, Bull. Seis. Soc. Am., in press.

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Kohler, M, T. Heaton, R. Govindan, P. Davis, and D. Estrin, 2006, Using embedded wired and wireless seismic networks in the moment-resisting steel frame Factor building for damage identification, Proceedings of the 4th China-Japan-US conference on Structural Control and Monitoring, in press.

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Aagaard, B., and T. Heaton, Constraining fault constitutive behavior with slip heterogeneity, J. Geophys. Res., submitted.

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Yamada, M., and T. Heaton, 2007, Real-Time Estimation of Fault Rupture Extent Using Envelopes of Acceleration, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., submitted.

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